The U.S. Department of Agriculture provided the following forecast for various crops in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report:
Global production is raised to a record with larger crops in the European Union, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Global consumption is revised higher with more feed and residual use, while global stocks are revised higher, mostly reflecting additional supplies in the European Union and Russia. Imports are raised for Turkey, Brazil, and Bangladesh, more than offsetting a reduction for the European Union. Exports are raised for Ukraine and India. The U.S. season-average farm price remains at $6.50 per bushel.
Global rice production is forecast slightly higher this month primarily on expanded production in India and Brazil. Global consumption is projected higher as a bump-up in India more than offsets small declines in Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Global stocks are forecast up on higher stocks mostly in Bangladesh and China more than offsetting lower stocks in India. Global trade is forecast higher primarily on an increase in exports from India and Brazil more than offsetting a minor decline in Cambodia.
For 2021/22, the June forecast shows higher trade and consumption with lower production and stocks. A lower consumption outlook for India is more than offset by higher expected demand in China, Bangladesh, and Turkey which is driving higher imports for these countries. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged at 75 cents per pound.
The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is forecast up 0.6 million tons to 632.9 million, with higher canola production partly offset by lower cottonseed. EU canola production is increased 0.6 million to 17.2 million as cool spring weather coupled with timely May rainfall boosted yield prospects particularly for France, Germany, and Poland. Australian canola production is also revised up 0.2 million tons to 3.7 million on higher area harvested and yield. Global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 92.6 million, driven by higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil. Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 137.0 million, mainly on higher yields for Mato Grosso do Sul. Another notable oilseed change includes a 0.5-million-ton reduction to 18.5 million for Malaysian 2020/21 palm oil production due to lower-than-expected recent monthly output.
This month’s 2021/22 global coarse grain outlook is for greater production, marginally higher trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Barley production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting forecast increases for Germany and France that are partly offset by a reduction for Spain. Barley production is also lowered for Turkey. Brazil corn production for 2020/21 is reduced on lower yield expectations for second-crop corn, based on below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during the month of May. Partly offsetting is greater indicated area for the second and third crops. Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger forecast barley exports for the EU with increased imports for China. For 2020/21, Brazil’s corn exports are lowered for the marketing year beginning March 2021. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised relative to last month, mostly reflecting increases for Pakistan and South Africa that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.