World 2021/22 coffee production forecast down 11 million bags on Brazil’s woes

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World coffee production for 2021/22 is forecast down 11.0 million bags from the previous year to 164.8 million, due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of Arabica trees entering the off‐year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its annual coffee report.

As a result of lower output, global ending inventories are expected to drop 7.9 million bags to 32.0 million, it said, adding that world coffee bean exports are expected down 4.8 million bags to 115.5 million as lower exports from Brazil more than offset higher shipments from Vietnam.  

Global consumption is rising 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil. Coffee prices, as measured by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite price index, have trended higher since June 2019.

Brazil’s Arabica output is forecast to drop 14.7 million bags to 35.0 million compared to the previous season due to a combination of factors. The majority of producing areas are in the off‐year of the biennial production cycle, resulting in lower production potential for the upcoming crop. Additionally, adverse weather conditions lowered yields as drought and high temperatures in major coffee growing regions affected blossoming as well as fruit setting and development. There were also reports that many growers pruned their trees at above‐average rates in response to last year’s record crop, thus lowering yields.  

India’s production is forecast to add 300,000 bags to 5.4 million on higher Robusta output in Karnataka, the largest coffee producing State. Arabica is forecast modestly lower as it enters the off‐year of the biennial production cycle. Bean exports are forecast unchanged at 3.7 million bags.   

Vietnam’s production is forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 30.8 million following last year’s dry growing conditions. With Robusta accounting for over 95 percent of total output and Robusta prices trending higher over the last 12 months, many growers were motivated to boost yields by incurring irrigation costs during the normally drier period of January through March. Farmers continue to intercrop coffee with fruits, such as avocado and durian, to increase their incomes. Bean exports are forecast to jump 3.0 million bags to 26.0 million, lowering inventories slightly

Colombia’s Arabica production is forecast 200,000 bags lower to 14.1 million although output remains strong on favourable growing conditions.  The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FEDECAFE) estimates that nearly 85 percent of coffee area is now planted with rust resistant varieties, compared to just 35 percent in 2008/09 when adverse weather conditions caused rust to proliferate, lowering output by one‐third. Since then, yields have increased about 30 percent due largely to the renovation program that replaced older, lower‐yielding trees with rust‐resistant varieties. The program also reduced the average age of coffee trees from 15 to 6.9 years, further boosting yields. Bean exports are seen down 100,000 bags to 12.4 million.

Indonesia’s production is forecast to slip a modest 100,000 bags to 10.6 million, with most of the loss occurring in Robusta output. Robusta production is expected at nearly 9.4 million bags on mostly favourable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java, where approximately 75 percent is grown. Heavy rains in northern Sumatra, where approximately 60 percent of Arabica output is derived, are expected to lower yields, with output down slightly to almost 1.3 million bags. Ending stocks are expected to halve to just 900,000 bags to sustain rising consumption and strong exports.

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