A reduced outlook for Brazilian maize is mainly behind a 3m t m/m (month-on-month) cut for world 2020/21 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production, to 2,216m, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest monthly report.
With total consumption fractionally higher m/m and opening stocks trimmed, the carryover at the end of 2020/21 is lowered by 5m t. Mostly linked to larger than envisaged imports of maize, barley and sorghum by China, the forecast for global trade (Jul/Jun) is raised by 5m t, to 425m, it said.
For 2021/22, increased projections for maize (+7m t m/m, mainly China) oats and minor grains (millet/triticale) lift the global production forecast by 9m m/m, to 2,301m, the IGC said, adding that given the lower carry-in and higher use, stocks are 2m t bigger m/m, at 597m. Larger predicted wheat imports in Near East Asia help to boost the total grains trade projection by 3m t m/m, to 418m.
On the basis of revised South American estimates, global soyabean output in 2020/21 is slightly higher m/m, at 363m t, a 7% y/y increase. The 2021/22 production outlook is maintained at a record of 383m t (+20m y/y).
However, IGC said, with a higher figure for carry-ins adding to supplies, stocks are predicted 2m t up m/m, at 53m (+11%), including an upgrade for the major exporters. The projection for trade is unchanged m/m, and is up 1% y/y at a new high.
Due to an upgraded estimate for India, world rice production in 2020/21 is lifted to a record of 504m t (+5m y/y), while total use is raised slightly to reflect increased utilisation of state reserves in leading consumers. The projection for 2021/22 production is marginally higher m/m and, with the increase matched by upgraded use, carryovers are unchanged m/m, at 171m t (+2m). World trade is unchanged m/m, at 47m t, steady y/y.