India Meteorological Department predicts July 2021 rainfall to be normal

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal rainfall this month, even as monsoon showers may resume after July 15. The rainfall in July, the wettest of the four-month monsoon season (June-September), may be around 96% of the long period average (LPA) of 28.5 cm, said the director general of IMD. 

The first month of the June-September monsoon season has recorded rains 10% above normal with each of the four regions — East and North-East, North-West, Central and South Peninsular — reporting surplus precipitation. However, the surplus rains could not help sowing activities as monsoon has been stalled since June 19 and is unlikely to revive before July 7, as per latest forecast.

“Advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab is not likely till 7th July,” IMD said. The stalled monsoon was mainly due to impact mid-latitude westerly winds, unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and absence of formation of low pressure system over north Bay of Bengal.

There is no change in the seasonal forecast of 101% of LPA for the entire country and also the rainfed area (around 52% of total land) may record ‘above normal’ rain.

Though prediction of a normal monsoon remains same, IMD on June 1 had revised upwards its April forecast of 98% of LPA (88 cm during 1961-2010). Rainfall between 96 to 104 % of LPA is considered ‘normal’, between 90-96% of LPA is termed ‘below normal and between 104-110% as ‘above normal’.

The weather bureau has also predicted ‘normal’ rainfall over north-west and south peninsula regions and ‘above normal’ over Central India. Though north-east region is expected to get ‘below normal’ rainfall, due to quantitatively higher precipitation compared to other regions, it is not much of a concern.

“Since 65-70% of the sowing takes place only in July, farmers will be under tremendous pressure to complete the activities in 15 days as first fortnight is not likely to bring sufficient rains,” an analyst said.

Meanwhile, given that monsoon has been stalled in many parts of the country since 19 June, the agriculture ministry launched a week-long campaign until July 7 to persuade to enroll for the crop insurance scheme, Prime Minister Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY).

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