International Grains Council cuts forecast for 2021/22 global wheat crop

The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for the 2021/22 global wheat crop, reflecting diminished outlooks for Russia, Canada and the United States. In its monthly update, the inter-governmental body cut its 2021/22 world wheat crop outlook by 6 million tonnes to 782 million tonnes.

The Council attributed the cut from last month to smaller projections for wheat production in Canada, Russia and the United States. At 782 million tonnes, the global wheat crop still would be the largest ever.

Russia’s wheat crop, which has been reduced by hot and dry weather this summer, was seen at 75 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 81 million tonnes but above this month’s U.S. Department of Agriculture’s projection of 72.5 million tonnes.

Drought also curbed production in North America and the IGC cut its wheat crop forecasts for Canada to 24.5 million tonnes from 28.5 million tonnes and the United States to 46.2 million tonnes from 47.5 million tonnes.

The impact was partially offset by upward revisions for Ukraine (to 32 million tonnes from 29.5 million tonnes) and Australia (to 30.1 million tonnes from 28.9 million tonnes).

The 2022 wheat carryover forecast also was lowered from July but not by as large a margin as wheat production. Ending stocks next year were forecast at 278 million tonnes, down 2 million from the July projection and down 1 million tonnes from this year’s forecast of 279 million tonnes. Global consumption of wheat in 2021-22 was trimmed 4 million tonnes from July to 783 million tonnes, up 1.7% from 770 million in 2020-21. The Council said the cut reflected a prospective reduction in wheat feeding in the new crop year.

The IGC also maintained its forecast for global corn (maize) production in the 2021/22 season at 1.202 billion tonnes. Overall grains production in 2021-22 was forecast by the IGC at 2,283 million tonnes, down 12 million tonnes from July but up 70 million tonnes, or 3.2%, from 2,213 million tonnes in 2020-21. Global grains ending stocks next year were projected at 589 million tonnes, down 5 million tonnes from July and down 5 million tonnes, or 0.8%, from 594 million tonnes in 2021.

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