USDA says global wheat outlook for higher output, lower trade and larger ending stocks

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The 2021/22 global outlook this month is for higher production, decreased trade and consumption, and larger ending stocks, the U.S. Agriculture Department said in its latest forecast.

It said global output is raised mainly on an increase for Australia, where an updated ABARES estimate raised production 2.3 million tons to a record 36.3 million.

“World exports are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 203.1 million, as decreases for Ukraine and Russia are only partly offset by increases for Australia and India. Exports are lowered for Ukraine by 4.0 million tons to 20.0 million, as the conflict in that country is expected to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region,” the report said.

Russia exports are reduced 3.0 million tons to 32.0 million as vessel transportation is expected to be constrained by the conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions. Partly offsetting these reductions are increases for 2021/22 Australian and Indian exports, up 2.0 and 1.5 million tons respectively to 27.5 and 8.5 million, it added.

According to the USDA, increased production and competitive prices are expected to boost exports in Australia to a record level. India’s robust export pace is expected to continue because of its ample stocks and rising global prices. Imports are lowered for many countries including Turkey, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world prices.

“The 2021/22 global use forecast is lowered 0.8 million tons to 787.3 million, on slight decreases in many countries, including India, that more than offset increased feed and residual forecasts for Australia and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are raised 3.3 million tons to 281.5 million, as increased stocks in Russia and Ukraine are only partly offset by declines in Turkey, India, and the EU, the report said.

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