Total global grains production is estimated at a record 2,287m t in 2021/22, up by 3% year-on-year, the International grains Council (IGC) said in its latest monthly report, adding that with a supply gain (+51m t) only partly absorbed by greater use (+45m), forecast inventories are seen rising by 7m y/y, to 608m, including an accumulation in Ukraine.
Linked partly to the ongoing suspension of that country’s seaborne export programme, world trade is projected to fall by 12m t y/y, to 416m, it added
In 2022/23, a projected 13m t drop in total grains production includes reductions for maize (-13m), sorghum (-2m) and wheat (-1m), but with anticipated gains for barley (+2m) and oats (+2m).
“Despite forecasts for slower than average growth in feed and food uses, tied to potentially high prices and resulting demand rationing, world consumption is expected to edge to a new peak, the IGC said, adding that at 581m t at the end of 2022/23, global stocks are projected to be 26m lower y/y, mainly on tightening in maize and wheat. Global trade is seen declining for a second year in a row, down 2%, to 407m t,” the IGC added.
Due to sizeably smaller South American crops, the 2021/22 world soyabean outturn is seen contracting by 5% y/y. Reflecting falls in Asia and South American processors in particular, global use is seen declining by 2% y/y, with stocks also set to contract sharply.
With tight supplies and elevated values prompting demand rationing, trade is forecast to drop by 5m t y/y. Tentatively assuming bigger or record crops in the three majors, 2022/23 global production is projected at a peak of 383m t, up 10% y/y, with gains in consumption and stocks anticipated. Assuming ample and attractively priced availabilities, trade could expand by 7% y/y, it added.
Including a record outturn in India, world rice output is projected 1% higher y/y, at a peak of 515m t. With China in particular utilising larger quantities of rice for feeding, global uptake is forecast at a new high, with inventories set to accumulate – largely reflecting gains in India.
“Trade is seen at a record of 51m t, broadly steady y/y. The 2022/23 global rice outturn is projected 1% larger y/y on potentially bigger harvests in key exporters. Population growth should underpin expanded uptake, while stocks could build further on gains in India. Trade in 2023 is seen remaining historically high,” it said.