Global 2022/23 oilseed production forecast lowered as Ukraine war bites

Global 2022/23 oilseed production is forecast at nearly 647 million tons, slightly lower compared to May, as reduced sunflowerseed in Ukraine and rapeseed in the European Union more than offset gains for soybeans in Ukraine and Zambia and rapeseed in Australia, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest monthly report.

Oilseed exports are raised on Australia rapeseed and Ukraine soybeans which exceed a reduction for Argentina sunflowerseed, it said, adding that global vegetable oil trade is slightly lower on reductions for Ukraine sunflowerseed oil exports which more than offset gains for Turkey sunflowerseed oil and Canada
rapeseed oil exports.

Global protein meal exports are slightly lower this month following reduced sunflowerseed production in Ukraine as well as lower rapeseed meal in India.

The USDA said global oilseed stocks are up nearly 1 million tons primarily on larger Argentina soybean stocks. The projected U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is up 30 cents to a record $14.70 per bushel.

Projection for 2021/22

The USDA forecast global 2021/22 oilseed production at 599 million tons, over 2 million greater than in May, as larger soybean crops in Argentina, Brazil, and Zambia as well as higher rapeseed output in India more than offset lower cottonseed for India.

Oilseed imports are up on higher sunflowerseed for the European Union and soybeans for Argentina and Turkey, which exceed lower imports of rapeseed for Pakistan and the European Union. Oilseed exports are slightly lower this month as reductions for Canada rapeseed and Brazil soybeans more than offset gains for Ukraine sunflowerseed, the USDA said.

Global vegetable oil imports are down this month following reductions for China palm, sunflowerseed, soybean, and rapeseed oil which exceed gains for sunflowerseed oil imports for Turkey. Exports are down this month on reductions for palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, palm kernel oil for Indonesia, and sunflowerseed oil in Ukraine.

Global protein meal trade is up this month primarily on higher soybean meal exports for Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, and Turkey. Meal imports are raised for the European Union and China, the USDA said.

Global oilseed stocks are up nearly 2 million tons, primarily on larger Argentina and Brazil soybean and Ukraine sunflowerseed stocks, it added.

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